Uncertainty Propagation Using Taylor Series Expansion and a Spreadsheet

Most analytical models include variables that have randomness or uncertainties associated with them. These models span many scientific and engineering disciplines. Analyzing these models without incorporating the uncertainties may provide misleading results. In this paper, several methods for evaluating uncertainty are summarized. One of these methods is illustrated using the Lotus 1-2-3 spreadsheet package. In particular, a model's uncertainty is determined by using multivariate Taylor series expansion. Lotus 1-2-3 macros and formulae for Taylor series expansion, along with a worked example, are presented. It is the intent of this paper to provide Idaho researchers with a viable tool for estimating uncertainty for any model that may be evaluated using a spreadsheet.